Burnley vs Brighton preview, 11 Apr 2026: xG form

11 Apr 14:00

T. Bramall

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR27%Draw30%BHA43%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1Brighton1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROBRI defence report

Low intensityVery high intensity

PROBUR shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1D. Welbeck(C)FW	£4.4m	0.1%

PROFantasy hub, projections

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyTechnical

Deep blockVery high line

Drops right offCounter-presses

CautiousMeasured risk

Central playEven width

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1D. Welbeck(C)FW	£4.4m	0.1%

PROFantasy hub, projections

Player	Rating					Rotation
D. WelbeckCF · BRI	7.0#7	30%	8%	0.55	78%	Medium	0.11
J. AnthonyWG · BUR	--	21%	11%	0.36	100%	Low	0.15
Z. FlemmingCF · BUR	6.8#10	18%	4%	0.32	74%	Medium	0.36
P. GroßCM · BRI	--	18%	12%	0.38	86%	Medium	0.12
Y. MintehWG · BRI	--	16%	13%	0.49	63%	Medium	0.43
L. FosterCF · BUR	5.6-	13%	6%	0.28	74%	Medium	0.03

43 more players

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROBUR set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

BurnleyBurnley
0-2
BrightonBrighton

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Key players

Set-piece takers

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Burnley formLLDLL

Brighton formWLWWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Key players

Set-piece takers