Burnley vs Everton preview, 27 Dec 2025: xG form

27 Dec 15:00

C. Pawson

This match has been played.

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EVE favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR29%Draw31%EVE41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1Everton1.3

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROEVE defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROBUR shape report PROEVE shape report

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offCounter-presses

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Mixed build-upVery direct

Central playWide play

Low intensityMiddling intensity

Measured riskVery bold

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko

PROBUR set pieces PROEVE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

BurnleyBurnley
0-0
EvertonEverton

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers