Burnley vs Fulham preview, 13 Dec 2025: xG form

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Rowe 8'
Bassey 30'
Wilson 57'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW16

13 Dec 17:30

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

See full analysis

FUL favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR29%Draw30%FUL41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1Fulham1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROFUL defence report

Very scrappyTechnical

PROBUR shape report PROFUL shape report

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

CautiousMeasured risk

Deep blockDeep block

Very low intensityLow intensity

Central playCentral play

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Drops right offDrops right off

Middling physicalityMiddling physicality

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson

PROBUR set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

BurnleyBurnley
2-3
FulhamFulham
Ugochukwu 20'
Sonne 85'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers