Burnley vs Manchester Utd preview, 7 Jan 2026: xG form

07 Jan 20:15

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

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MUN favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR21%Draw27%MUN52%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.0Man Utd1.7

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROMUN defence report

Drops right offCounter-presses

PROBUR shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyTechnical

Low intensityMiddling intensity

CautiousMeasured risk

LightMiddling physicality

Mixed build-upMixed build-up

Central playCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot

PROBUR set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

BurnleyBurnley
2-2
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Heaven (OG) 12'
Anthony 65'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers