Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth preview, 18 Oct 2025: xG form

18 Oct 14:00

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

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CRY favoured at home, but only just.

CRY41%Draw27%BOU31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

C. Palace1.6Bournemouth1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

CRY attack

LW0.18

CF0.47

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROCRY attack report PROBOU defence report

Low intensityVery high intensity

PROCRY shape report PROBOU shape report

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

Last 6, goals vs xG

CRY6 scored from 9.3 xG-3.3

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockPresses higher

Central playWide play

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Fairly directVery direct

Takes risksTakes risks

Heavy counter-pressHeavy counter-press

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Richards	Throw-ins	101	1.1
Lerma	Throw-ins	50	0.4
Wharton	Corners L and R, 1 short	44	1.6
Mateta	Penalties	4	3.0
Sarr	Penalties	3	2.3
Devenny	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Penalties

24%

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo

PROCRY set pieces PROBOU set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

Crystal PalaceC. Palace
3-3
BournemouthBournemouth
Mateta 63'
Mateta 68'
Mateta (P)

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers