Everton vs Brentford preview, 4 Jan 2026: xG form

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Thiago 10'
Collins 49'
Thiago 50'
Thiago 87'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW20

04 Jan 15:00

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

EVE favoured at home, but only just.

EVE41%Draw29%BRE30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Everton1.4Brentford1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

PROEVE attack report PROBRE defence report

Sits deeperPresses higher

PROEVE shape report PROBRE shape report

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Takes risksVery bold

Counter-pressesHeavy counter-press

ScrappyMiddling control

Physically dominantPhysically dominant

Very directVery direct

Middling intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko	Throw-ins	51	0.6
Dewsbury-Hall	Corners R, 1 short	43	1.9
Ndiaye	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt

PROEVE set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

EvertonEverton
2-4
BrentfordBrentford
Beto 65'
Barry 90'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers