Everton vs Nottingham Forest preview, 6 Dec 2025: xG form

06 Dec 15:00

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

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EVE favoured at home, but only just.

EVE42%Draw30%NFO28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Everton1.4Forest1.1

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

PROEVE attack report PRONFO defence report

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

PROEVE shape report PRONFO shape report

NFO attack

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

Last 6, goals vs xG

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

NFO16 scored from 9.7 xG+6.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits deeperPresses higher

Measured riskVery bold

Fairly directVery direct

ScrappyMiddling control

Low intensityMiddling intensity

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko	Throw-ins	51	0.6
Dewsbury-Hall	Corners R, 1 short	43	1.9
Ndiaye	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Anderson	Corners L and R, 12 short	88	2.8
Anderson	Free kicks	57	0.6
Hutchinson	Corners R, 11 short	46	1.3
Anderson

PROEVE set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

32%

EvertonEverton
3-0
Nottingham ForestForest
Milenković (OG) 1'
Barry 47'
Dewsbury-Hall

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers