Fulham vs Brentford preview, 20 Sep 2025: xG form

20 Sep 19:00

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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FUL favoured at home, but only just.

FUL42%Draw29%BRE29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Fulham1.5Brentford1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

PROFUL attack report PROBRE defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROFUL shape report PROBRE shape report

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Possession-basedVery direct

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Central playEven width

Deep blockSits deeper

Middling controlTechnical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson	Free kicks	24	0.2
Jiménez	Penalties	4	3.0
Robinson	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt

PROFUL set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

FulhamFulham
3-1
BrentfordBrentford
Iwobi 37'
Wilson 39'
Pinnock (OG)

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers