Fulham vs Brighton preview, 24 Jan 2026: xG form

24 Jan 15:00

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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FUL favoured at home, but only just.

FUL41%Draw29%BHA30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Fulham1.4Brighton1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

PROFUL attack report PROBRI defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROFUL shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockVery high line

Drops right offCounter-presses

Central playEven width

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Possession-basedPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson	Free kicks	24	0.2
Jiménez	Penalties	4	3.0
Robinson	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROFUL set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

FulhamFulham
2-1
BrightonBrighton
Chukwueze 71'
Wilson 91'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers