Leeds Utd vs Manchester Utd preview, 4 Jan 2026: xG form

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This match has been played.

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LEE favoured at home, but only just.

LEE37%Draw27%MUN36%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Leeds Utd1.5Man Utd1.5

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

LEE attack

LW0.29

CF0.59

RW0.53

CAM0.35

CDM0.24

CM0.24

LB0.06

CB0.12

RB0.41

PROLEE attack report PROMUN defence report

LightPhysically dominant

PROLEE shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

LEE10 scored from 11.5 xG-1.5

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Central playWide play

Mid-blockPresses higher

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Counter-pressesHeavy counter-press

Mixed build-upMixed build-up

Premier League 2025/2026

GW20

04 Jan 12:30

J. Gillett

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LEE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ampadu	Throw-ins	136	1.8
Stach	Corners L and R, 6 short	100	4.3
Stach	Free kicks	43	0.5
Longstaff	Corners L and R	31	2.3
Calvert-Lewin	Penalties	5	3.8
Nmecha	Penalties	3	2.3

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Penalties

22%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot

PROLEE set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Leeds UtdLeeds Utd
1-1
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Aaronson 61'

Key players

Set-piece takers