Liverpool vs Arsenal preview, 31 Aug 2025: xG form

31 Aug 15:30

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

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ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

LIV35%Draw28%ARS37%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.4Arsenal1.4

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROLIV attack report PROARS defence report

Very lightMiddling physicality

PROLIV shape report PROARS shape report

ARS attack

LW0.00

CF0.29

RW0.00

CAM0.06

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.00

CB0.29

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

ARS9 scored from 12.4 xG-3.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralEven width

High intensityVery high intensity

Sits offMixed response

Patient build-upPossession-based

Very cautiousVery cautious

Very high lineVery high line

Very technicalVery technical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo	Corners L and R	32	1.2
Salah	Penalties	1	0.8
Szoboszlai	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 9 short	95	5.5
Rice	Free kicks	75	3.2
Saka	Corners R, 9 short	64	4.3
Madueke

PROLIV set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

24%

LiverpoolLiverpool
1-0
ArsenalArsenal
Szoboszlai 82'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers