Liverpool vs Manchester Utd preview, 19 Oct 2025: xG form

19 Oct 15:30

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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LIV favoured at home, but only just.

LIV40%Draw27%MUN33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.6Man Utd1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROLIV attack report PROMUN defence report

Mid-blockVery high line

PROLIV shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

TechnicalVery technical

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Very cautiousCautious

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Central playEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo	Corners L and R	32	1.2
Salah	Penalties	1	0.8
Szoboszlai	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot

PROLIV set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

LiverpoolLiverpool
1-2
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Gakpo 77'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers