Liverpool vs Newcastle Utd preview, 31 Jan 2026: xG form

31 Jan 20:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

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LIV favoured at home, but only just.

LIV49%Draw26%NEW25%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.8Newcastle1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROLIV attack report PRONEW defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROLIV shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

TechnicalVery technical

Very cautiousMeasured risk

High intensityHigh intensity

Patient build-upPossession-based

Mixed responseMixed response

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo	Corners L and R	32	1.2
Salah	Penalties	1	0.8
Szoboszlai	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROLIV set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

LiverpoolLiverpool
4-1
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Ekitiké 40'
Ekitiké 42'
Wirtz

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers