Manchester City vs Chelsea preview, 4 Jan 2026: xG form

04 Jan 17:30

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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MCI clear favourites at home.

MCI55%Draw24%CHE21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Man City2.0Chelsea1.2

A 0.8 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

MCI attack

LW0.59

CF0.18

RW0.06

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.00

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

PROMCI attack report PROCHE defence report

Mid-blockVery high line

PROMCI shape report PROCHE shape report

CHE attack

LW0.12

CF0.59

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.06

CM0.29

LB0.12

CB0.18

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

MCI12 scored from 12.7 xG-0.7

CHE5 scored from 6.0 xG-1.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Low intensityHigh intensity

Very centralVery central

Very cautiousVery cautious

Drops right offSits off

Very technicalVery technical

Patient build-upPatient build-up

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Foden	Corners L and R, 5 short	91	3.1
Cherki	Corners L and R, 8 short	54	1.8
Silva	Corners L and R, 18 short	47	1.6
Reijnders	Corners L and R, 5 short	28	2.4
Silva	Free kicks	25	0.6
Haaland	Penalties	4	3.0

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

22%

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
James	Corners L and R, 16 short	78	3.3
Neto	Corners L and R, 11 short	68	3.6
Fernández	Corners L and R, 12 short	51	2.0
Neto

PROMCI set pieces PROCHE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Penalties

26%

Manchester CityMan City
1-1
ChelseaChelsea
Reijnders 41'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers