Manchester Utd vs Manchester City preview, 17 Jan 2026: xG form

17 Jan 12:30

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

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MUN favoured at home, but only just.

MUN42%Draw26%MCI32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Man Utd1.7Man City1.5

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROMUN attack report PROMCI defence report

Mid-blockVery high line

PROMUN shape report PROMCI shape report

MCI attack

LW0.59

CF0.18

RW0.06

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.00

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

MCI12 scored from 12.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits offCounter-presses

Patient build-upMixed build-up

TechnicalVery technical

Very cautiousCautious

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Very centralCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot	Throw-ins	40	1.3
Diallo	Corners R, 1 short	15	0.2
Fernandes	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Foden	Corners L and R, 5 short	91	3.1
Cherki	Corners L and R, 8 short	54	1.8
Silva	Corners L and R, 18 short	47	1.6
Reijnders

PROMUN set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

22%

Manchester UtdMan Utd
2-0
Manchester CityMan City
Mbeumo 64'
Dorgu 75'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers