Manchester Utd vs Newcastle Utd preview, 26 Dec 2025: xG form

26 Dec 20:00

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

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MUN favoured at home, but only just.

MUN53%Draw25%NEW22%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Man Utd1.9Newcastle1.2

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROMUN attack report PRONEW defence report

Central playVery wide

PROMUN shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Mixed responseCounter-presses

CautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot	Throw-ins	40	1.3
Diallo	Corners R, 1 short	15	0.2
Fernandes	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROMUN set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

Manchester UtdMan Utd
1-0
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Dorgu 23'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers