Newcastle Utd vs Fulham preview, 25 Oct 2025: xG form

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This match has been played.

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NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW44%Draw28%FUL28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.6Fulham1.2

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROFUL defence report

Very low intensityHigh intensity

PRONEW shape report PROFUL shape report

Premier League 2025/2026

GW9

25 Oct 14:00

P. Bankes

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Central playVery wide

Drops right offMixed response

Middling physicalityFairly physical

CautiousMeasured risk

Possession-basedPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson

PRONEW set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-1
FulhamFulham
Murphy 17'
Guimarães 89'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers