Newcastle Utd vs Leeds Utd preview, 7 Jan 2026: xG form

07 Jan 20:15

M. Salisbury

This match has been played.

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NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW42%Draw27%LEE31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.6Leeds Utd1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROLEE defence report

ScrappyTechnical

PRONEW shape report PROLEE shape report

LEE attack

LW0.29

CF0.59

RW0.53

CAM0.35

CDM0.24

CM0.24

LB0.06

CB0.12

RB0.41

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

LEE10 scored from 11.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Mid-blockPresses higher

Measured riskTakes risks

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

High intensityHigh intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

LEE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ampadu	Throw-ins	136	1.8
Stach	Corners L and R, 6 short	100	4.3
Stach	Free kicks	43	0.5
Longstaff

PRONEW set pieces PROLEE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Penalties

22%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
4-3
Leeds UtdLeeds Utd
Barnes 35'
Joelinton 53'
Guimarães (P)

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers