Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City preview, 22 Nov 2025: xG form

22 Nov 17:30

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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MCI favoured away from home, but only just.

NEW33%Draw26%MCI41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.5Man City1.7

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROMCI defence report

Very centralVery wide

PRONEW shape report PROMCI shape report

MCI attack

LW0.59

CF0.18

RW0.06

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.00

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

MCI12 scored from 12.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Mid-blockVery high line

Very cautiousMeasured risk

TechnicalVery technical

Sits offMixed response

Patient build-upPossession-based

High intensityHigh intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Foden	Corners L and R, 5 short	91	3.1
Cherki	Corners L and R, 8 short	54	1.8
Silva	Corners L and R, 18 short	47	1.6
Reijnders

PRONEW set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

22%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-1
Manchester CityMan City
Barnes 63'
Barnes 69'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers