Newcastle Utd vs Manchester Utd preview, 4 Mar 2026: xG form

04 Mar 20:15

P. Bankes

This match has been played.

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MUN favoured away from home, but only just.

NEW35%Draw27%MUN38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.5Man Utd1.5

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROMUN defence report

Central playVery wide

PRONEW shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Mixed responseCounter-presses

CautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot

PRONEW set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-1
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Gordon (P) 50'
Osula 89'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers