Sunderland vs Brighton preview, 14 Mar 2026: xG form

14 Mar 15:00

T. Kirk

This match has been played.

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SUN favoured at home, but only just.

SUN35%Draw31%BHA35%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Sunderland1.2Brighton1.2

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

PROSUN attack report PROBRI defence report

CautiousVery bold

PROSUN shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Sits offCounter-presses

LightFairly physical

Possession-basedFairly direct

Presses higherVery high line

Even widthEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée	Corners L and R, 6 short	50	1.7
Fée	Penalties	4	3.0
Diarra	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROSUN set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

SunderlandSunderland
0-1
BrightonBrighton

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers