Sunderland vs Burnley preview, 2 Feb 2026: xG form

02 Feb 20:00

P. Tierney

This match has been played.

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SUN favoured at home, but only just.

SUN49%Draw29%BUR21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Sunderland1.5Burnley0.9

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

PROSUN attack report PROBUR defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROSUN shape report PROBUR shape report

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Low intensityMiddling intensity

LightMiddling physicality

Drops right offSits off

Central playEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée	Corners L and R, 6 short	50	1.7
Fée	Penalties	4	3.0
Diarra	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman

PROSUN set pieces PROBUR set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

SunderlandSunderland
3-0
BurnleyBurnley
Tuanzebe (OG) 8'
Diarra 31'
Talbi

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers