Tottenham vs Aston Villa preview, 19 Oct 2025: xG form

19 Oct 13:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

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TOT favoured at home, but only just.

TOT38%Draw29%AVL33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Tottenham1.4Villa1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

TOT attack

LW0.59

CF0.35

RW0.18

CAM0.35

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.18

RB0.12

PROTOT attack report PROAVL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROTOT shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

TOT8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralVery wide

Very lightFairly physical

Patient build-upMixed build-up

CautiousMeasured risk

Middling controlTechnical

Drops right offSits off

Sits deeperMid-block

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Porro	Corners L and R, 8 short	73	3.5
Porro	Free kicks	50	1.6
Kudus	Corners R, 5 short	49	1.5
Tel	Corners L and R, 2 short	49	3.9
Danso	Throw-ins	42	0.4
Simons	Corners L and R, 6 short	33	1.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

64%

Throw-ins

28%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROTOT set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

TottenhamTottenham
1-2
Aston VillaVilla
Bentancur 4'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers