Tottenham vs Crystal Palace preview, 5 Mar 2026: xG form

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Sarr (P) 39'
Larsen 45'
Sarr 51'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW29

05 Mar 20:00

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

TOT favoured at home, but only just.

TOT41%Draw30%CRY30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Tottenham1.4C. Palace1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

TOT attack

LW0.59

CF0.35

RW0.18

CAM0.35

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.18

RB0.12

PROTOT attack report PROCRY defence report

Sits offHeavy counter-press

PROTOT shape report PROCRY shape report

CRY attack

LW0.18

CF0.47

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

TOT8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

CRY6 scored from 9.3 xG-3.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Low intensityVery high intensity

Central playVery wide

Very scrappyMiddling control

Measured riskTakes risks

Deep blockSits deeper

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Porro	Corners L and R, 8 short	73	3.5
Porro	Free kicks	50	1.6
Kudus	Corners R, 5 short	49	1.5
Tel	Corners L and R, 2 short	49	3.9
Danso	Throw-ins	42	0.4
Simons	Corners L and R, 6 short	33	1.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

64%

Throw-ins

28%

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Richards	Throw-ins	101	1.1
Lerma	Throw-ins	50	0.4
Wharton	Corners L and R, 1 short	44	1.6
Mateta

PROTOT set pieces PROCRY set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Penalties

24%

TottenhamTottenham
1-3
Crystal PalaceC. Palace
Solanke 33'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers