Tottenham vs Sunderland preview, 4 Jan 2026: xG form

04 Jan 15:00

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

See full analysis

TOT favoured at home, but only just.

TOT47%Draw29%SUN24%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Tottenham1.5Sunderland1.0

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

TOT attack

LW0.59

CF0.35

RW0.18

CAM0.35

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.18

RB0.12

PROTOT attack report PROSUN defence report

Measured riskVery bold

PROTOT shape report PROSUN shape report

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

TOT8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Sits deeperPresses higher

ScrappyMiddling control

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Porro	Corners L and R, 8 short	73	3.5
Porro	Free kicks	50	1.6
Kudus	Corners R, 5 short	49	1.5
Tel	Corners L and R, 2 short	49	3.9
Danso	Throw-ins	42	0.4
Simons	Corners L and R, 6 short	33	1.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

64%

Throw-ins

28%

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée

PROTOT set pieces PROSUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

TottenhamTottenham
1-1
SunderlandSunderland
Davies 29'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers