West Ham Utd vs Brentford preview, 20 Oct 2025: xG form

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Thiago 42'
Jensen 94'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW8

20 Oct 19:00

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

WHU favoured at home, but only just.

WHU42%Draw28%BRE30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

West Ham1.5Brentford1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WHU attack

LW0.59

CF0.53

RW0.35

CAM0.35

CDM0.35

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.53

RB0.06

PROWHU attack report PROBRE defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROWHU shape report PROBRE shape report

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

WHU6 scored from 10.9 xG-4.9

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Very scrappyMiddling control

Takes risksVery bold

Counter-pressesHeavy counter-press

Fairly directVery direct

Sits deeperSits deeper

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners R	57	3.8
Fernandes	Free kicks	48	1.0
Summerville	Corners L, 3 short	30	1.8
Potts	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	0.7
Paquetà	Penalties	2	1.5
Bowen	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Free kicks

17%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt

PROWHU set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

West Ham UtdWest Ham
0-2
BrentfordBrentford

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers