West Ham Utd vs Brighton preview, 30 Dec 2025: xG form

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Welbeck (P) 31'
Veltman 60'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW19

30 Dec 19:30

M. Salisbury

This match has been played.

See full analysis

WHU favoured at home, but only just.

WHU41%Draw29%BHA30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

West Ham1.5Brighton1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WHU attack

LW0.59

CF0.53

RW0.35

CAM0.35

CDM0.35

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.53

RB0.06

PROWHU attack report PROBRI defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROWHU shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

WHU6 scored from 10.9 xG-4.9

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyTechnical

Sits deeperVery high line

Very lightFairly physical

Possession-basedFairly direct

Counter-pressesCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners R	57	3.8
Fernandes	Free kicks	48	1.0
Summerville	Corners L, 3 short	30	1.8
Potts	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	0.7
Paquetà	Penalties	2	1.5
Bowen	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Free kicks

17%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROWHU set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

West Ham UtdWest Ham
2-2
BrightonBrighton
Bowen 9'
Paquetà (P) 48'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers