West Ham Utd vs Burnley preview, 8 Nov 2025: xG form

08 Nov 15:00

M. Salisbury

This match has been played.

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WHU clear favourites at home.

WHU57%Draw26%BUR18%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

West Ham1.8Burnley0.9

A 0.9 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WHU attack

LW0.59

CF0.53

RW0.35

CAM0.35

CDM0.35

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.53

RB0.06

PROWHU attack report PROBUR defence report

Drops right offCounter-presses

PROWHU shape report PROBUR shape report

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

WHU6 scored from 10.9 xG-4.9

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Very lightMiddling physicality

Central playWide play

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Very low intensityLow intensity

Deep blockSits deeper

Very scrappyVery scrappy

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners R	57	3.8
Fernandes	Free kicks	48	1.0
Summerville	Corners L, 3 short	30	1.8
Potts	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	0.7
Paquetà	Penalties	2	1.5
Bowen	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Free kicks

17%

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman

PROWHU set pieces PROBUR set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

West Ham UtdWest Ham
3-2
BurnleyBurnley
Wilson 43'
Souček 76'
Walker-Peters

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers