West Ham Utd vs Nottingham Forest preview, 6 Jan 2026: xG form

06 Jan 20:00

T. Harrington

This match has been played.

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WHU favoured at home, but only just.

WHU43%Draw28%NFO29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

West Ham1.5Forest1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WHU attack

LW0.59

CF0.53

RW0.35

CAM0.35

CDM0.35

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.53

RB0.06

PROWHU attack report PRONFO defence report

Measured riskVery bold

PROWHU shape report PRONFO shape report

NFO attack

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

Last 6, goals vs xG

WHU6 scored from 10.9 xG-4.9

NFO16 scored from 9.7 xG+6.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyMiddling control

Very low intensityLow intensity

Very lightMiddling physicality

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Sits deeperSits deeper

Fairly directFairly direct

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners R	57	3.8
Fernandes	Free kicks	48	1.0
Summerville	Corners L, 3 short	30	1.8
Potts	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	0.7
Paquetà	Penalties	2	1.5
Bowen	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Free kicks

17%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Anderson	Corners L and R, 12 short	88	2.8
Anderson	Free kicks	57	0.6
Hutchinson	Corners R, 11 short	46	1.3
Anderson

PROWHU set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

32%

West Ham UtdWest Ham
1-2
Nottingham ForestForest
Murillo (OG) 12'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers