Wolverhampton vs Chelsea preview, 7 Feb 2026: xG form

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Palmer (P) 12'
Palmer (P) 34'
Palmer 37'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW25

07 Feb 15:00

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CHE favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL31%Draw30%CHE40%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.2Chelsea1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WOL attack

LW0.35

CF0.71

RW0.47

CAM0.35

CDM0.18

CM0.71

LB0.35

CB0.06

RB0.29

PROWOL attack report PROCHE defence report

Patient build-upVery direct

PROWOL shape report PROCHE shape report

CHE attack

LW0.12

CF0.59

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.06

CM0.29

LB0.12

CB0.18

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL3 scored from 7.8 xG-4.8

CHE5 scored from 6.0 xG-1.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralVery wide

Very cautiousVery bold

Very scrappyVery technical

Very lightFairly physical

Drops right offMixed response

Very low intensityLow intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mosquera	Throw-ins	60	1.2
Bueno	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	2.4
Larsen	Penalties	2	1.5
Hee-Chan	Penalties	1	0.8
Arokodare	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
James	Corners L and R, 16 short	78	3.3
Neto	Corners L and R, 11 short	68	3.6
Fernández	Corners L and R, 12 short	51	2.0
Neto

PROWOL set pieces PROCHE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Penalties

26%

WolverhamptonWolves
1-3
ChelseaChelsea
Arokodare 53'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers