Wolverhampton vs Newcastle Utd preview, 18 Jan 2026: xG form

18 Jan 14:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

See full analysis

NEW favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL33%Draw30%NEW38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.2Newcastle1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WOL attack

LW0.35

CF0.71

RW0.47

CAM0.35

CDM0.18

CM0.71

LB0.35

CB0.06

RB0.29

PROWOL attack report PRONEW defence report

Possession-basedVery direct

PROWOL shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL3 scored from 7.8 xG-4.8

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityHigh intensity

Very scrappyTechnical

Measured riskVery bold

Mixed responseMixed response

Fairly physicalFairly physical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mosquera	Throw-ins	60	1.2
Bueno	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	2.4
Larsen	Penalties	2	1.5
Hee-Chan	Penalties	1	0.8
Arokodare	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROWOL set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

WolverhamptonWolves
0-0
Newcastle UtdNewcastle

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers