Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction, 3 Mar 2027: xG model

Liverpool favoured at home, but only just.

LIV47%Draw27%AVL26%

Based on 16 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.7Villa1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

PROLiverpool shape report PROAston Villa shape report

Where each side attacks, where the other concedes, and the biggest mismatch between them.

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

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Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1A. Isak(C)FW	£9m	15.4%
2C. GakpoMF	£7.1m	8.4%
3D. Szoboszlai

PROMy Team, projections

39%called correctly

Error score

6% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.225 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

33%·66

50-60%

56%·9

60-70%

75%·4

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 80 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1A. Isak(C)FW	£9m	15.4%
2C. GakpoMF	£7.1m	8.4%
3D. Szoboszlai

PROMy Team, projections

Liverpool Player	Routine	Taken	xG
D. Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 2 short
D. Szoboszlai	Free kicks
A. Mac Allister	Corners L and R, 5 short
R. Araújo	Throw-ins
F. Wirtz	Corners L and R
D. Szoboszlai	Penalties

Aston Villa Player	Routine	Taken	xG
J. McGinn	Corners L and R, 2 short
J. McGinn	Free kicks
M. Cash	Throw-ins

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

LiverpoolLiverpool
vs
Aston VillaVilla

LiverpoolLiverpool
vs
Aston VillaVilla

LiverpoolLiverpool
vs
Aston VillaVilla

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Liverpool formDWLWW, most recent

Aston Villa formLWDWW, most recent

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players