Newcastle Utd vs Nottingham Forest preview, 30 Dec 2026: xG form

Newcastle United favoured at home, but only just.

NEW41%Draw28%NFO31%

Mostly last season's ratings, plus 10 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.5Forest1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Newcastle United attack105 chances

PRONewcastle United attack report PRONottingham Forest defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PRONewcastle United shape report PRONottingham Forest shape report

36%38 / 105

19%20 / 105

45%47 / 105

LW0.75

CF0.25

RW0.00

CAM0.00

CDM0.50

CM0.00

LB0.00

CB0.25

RB0.25

Newcastle United's right side carries the load, and it meets Nottingham Forest's softest flank.

Nottingham Forest attack117 chances

34%40 / 117

27%31 / 117

39%46 / 117

LeftCentreRight

LW0.25

CF0.25

RW0.75

CAM0.25

CDM0.00

CM0.25

LB0.00

CB0.00

RB0.00

Nottingham Forest lean right too, straight into Newcastle United's stronger side.

Nottingham Forest concede through the right channel

18th of 20

Leaks least in the leagueLeaks most

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW9 scored from 5.6 xG · 5 matches+3.4

NFO4 scored from 7.9 xG · 5 matches-3.9

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£8m	16%

PROFantasy hub, projections

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Central playVery wide

Mixed build-upVery direct

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Measured riskTakes risks

ScrappyMiddling control

Middling intensityMiddling intensity

Deep blockDeep block

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£8m	16%

PROFantasy hub, projections

Newcastle United Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hall	Corners L and R, 4 short	13	0.1
Hall	Free kicks	9	0.2
Barnes	Corners L	3	0.0
Elanga	Corners L	3	0.4
Wissa	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

41%

Penalties

29%

Nottingham Forest Player	Routine	Taken	xG
McAtee	Corners R	11	0.7
Aina	Throw-ins	10	0.1
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	8	0.5
Williams

PRONewcastle United set pieces PRONottingham Forest set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

33%

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
vs
Nottingham ForestForest

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers

Key players

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers

Key players