Manchester Utd vs Southampton Preview: What the xG Data Says

Man Utd

3-13.36-1.62

Southampton

Diallo 81'
Diallo 89'
Diallo 93'

Ugarte (OG) 42'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW21

16 Jan 20:00

J. Brooks

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

Their recent conversion outpaces xG by 39%. If chance volume drops, the goals could dry up

FavoursSouthamptonSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Southampton concede just NaN xGA per match vs MUN's 0.9. That gap should show in chance quality

FavoursSouthamptonSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Manchester United

Last 9 home games5W · 3D · 1L · 56% wins

Solid form (leaky at the back)

2.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

1.2 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.1)

Below expected

Player
Mbeumo MUN	0.52	0.22	1.97	92
Cunha MUN	0.52	0.31	3.25	89
Fernandes MUN	0.47	0.17	2.51	88

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Manchester United

Southampton

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

MUN(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.24

0.421st

0.451st

0.371st

0.241st

0.131st

0.081st

0.161st

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Come back after the final whistle.

Manchester United form

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Mbeumo MUN	0.52	0.22	1.97	92
Cunha MUN	0.52	0.31	3.25	89
Fernandes MUN	0.47	0.17	2.51	88

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Manchester UtdMan Utd
3-1
SouthamptonSouthampton
Diallo 81'
Diallo 89'
Diallo

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

MUN

MUN

MUN

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

MUN

MUN

MUN

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

MUN

MUN

MUN

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Southampton form

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

MUN

MUN

MUN