Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Preview: What the xG Data Says

Premier League 2024/2025

GW28

08 Mar 12:30

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

MCI favoured away from home, but only just.

NFO32%Draw25%MCI43%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.3Man City1.5

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

NFO attack360 chances

PRONFO attack report PROMCI defence report

Very cautiousVery bold

PRONFO shape report PROMCI shape report

52%186 / 360

12%43 / 360

36%131 / 360

NFO lean left too, straight into MCI's stronger side.

MCI attack504 chances

45%226 / 504

21%105 / 504

34%173 / 504

LeftCentreRight

MCI lean left too, straight into NFO's stronger side.

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO7 scored from 7.7 xG-0.7

MCI10 scored from 11.0 xG-1.0

30%called correctly

Error score

1% worse than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.205 against 0.203 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

24%·29

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

50%·2

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 37 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyVery technical

Very centralVery wide

Patient build-upVery direct

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

Sits deeperPresses higher

LightMiddling physicality

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina	Throw-ins	45	1.0
Elanga	Free kicks	34	1.5
Wood	Penalties	3	2.3

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bruyne	Corners L and R, 33 short	94	2.7
Gündoğan	Corners L and R, 9 short	46	1.7
Foden	Corners L and R, 6 short	46	2.3
Bruyne

PRONFO set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

Nottingham ForestForest
1-0
Manchester CityMan City
Hudson-Odoi 82'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers