Brighton vs Burnley preview, 3 Jan 2026: xG form

03 Jan 15:00

T. Robinson

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI clear favourites at home.

BHA57%Draw26%BUR17%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.8Burnley0.9

A 0.9 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROBUR defence report

Low intensityVery high intensity

PROBRI shape report PROBUR shape report

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyTechnical

Deep blockVery high line

Drops right offCounter-presses

CautiousMeasured risk

Central playEven width

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman

PROBRI set pieces PROBUR set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

BrightonBrighton
2-0
BurnleyBurnley
Rutter 28'
Ayari 46'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers