Brighton vs Everton preview, 31 Jan 2026: xG form

31 Jan 15:00

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw29%EVE27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Everton1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROEVE defence report

CautiousVery bold

PROBRI shape report PROEVE shape report

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Possession-basedVery direct

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Presses higherVery high line

Counter-pressesCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko

PROBRI set pieces PROEVE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

BrightonBrighton
1-1
EvertonEverton
Groß 72'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers