Burnley vs Liverpool preview, 14 Sep 2025: xG form

14 Sep 13:00

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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LIV favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR24%Draw28%LIV47%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1Liverpool1.6

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROLIV defence report

Very scrappyVery technical

PROBUR shape report PROLIV shape report

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockVery high line

Low intensityHigh intensity

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Very lightMiddling physicality

Drops right offMixed response

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Central playEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo

PROBUR set pieces PROLIV set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

BurnleyBurnley
0-1
LiverpoolLiverpool

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers