Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Preview: What the xG Data Says

Premier League 2025/2026

GW33

19 Apr 13:00

T. Kirk

This match has been played.

See full analysis

NFOForest1.7BURBurnley0.9

Right channel

NFO right channel vs BUR left side

Burnley's left side holds up well.

NFO attack here

42% of attacks

BUR concede here

0.22 xT per match

How often the model's pick has been right this season, and how well its stated confidence matched what happened.From 20 settled matches

Player	Score	Assist	xGI/90	Mins
M. Gibbs-WhiteCAM · NFO	29%	14%	0.49	98%
Igor JesusCF · NFO	27%	11%	0.51	83%
J. AnthonyWG · BUR	18%	9%	0.30	100%
Z. FlemmingCF · BUR	17%	4%	0.28	81%
C. Hudson-OdoiWG · NFO	14%	11%	0.42	64%
C. WoodCF · NFO	14%	2%	0.71	24%

48 more players, sort by any column, split by opponent qualityExpand · PRO

Attacking zones, vulnerabilities and style

LeftCentreRight

Leaks least in the leagueLeaks most

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£7.4m	4.9%

NFO

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

BUR

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Forest should carry the chances. Forest are strong favourites at 56%.

Based on 76 matches played this season.

NFO56%

Draw27%

BUR18%

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£7.4m	4.9%

Player	Score	Assist	xGI/90	Mins
M. Gibbs-WhiteCAM · NFO	29%	14%	0.49	98%
Igor JesusCF · NFO	27%	11%	0.51	83%
J. AnthonyWG · BUR	18%	9%	0.30	100%
Z. FlemmingCF · BUR	17%	4%	0.28	81%
C. Hudson-OdoiWG · NFO	14%	11%	0.42	64%
C. WoodCF · NFO	14%	2%	0.71	24%

48 more players, sort by any column, split by opponent qualityExpand · PRO

Nottingham ForestForest
4-1
BurnleyBurnley
Gibbs-White 62'
Gibbs-White 68'
Gibbs-White

Model verdict

Biggest mismatch

Model accuracy

Most likely to score

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Attacking zones, vulnerabilities and style

Where they attack

What this match is worth to you

Goal involvements conceded per position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Most likely to score

Model verdict

Biggest mismatch

Model accuracy

Most likely to score

Attacking zones, vulnerabilities and style

Where they attack

Nottingham Forest formLDDWD

Burnley formLLDLL

Head-to-head · last 5

What this match is worth to you

Goal involvements conceded per position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Most likely to score