Nottingham Forest vs Fulham preview, 15 Mar 2026: xG form

15 Mar 14:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO42%Draw29%FUL29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.5Fulham1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

PRONFO attack report PROFUL defence report

Central playVery wide

PRONFO shape report PROFUL shape report

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO16 scored from 9.7 xG+6.3

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offMixed response

Possession-basedFairly direct

Very low intensityLow intensity

CautiousMeasured risk

Deep blockSits deeper

Middling controlTechnical

Middling physicalityMiddling physicality

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Anderson	Corners L and R, 12 short	88	2.8
Anderson	Free kicks	57	0.6
Hutchinson	Corners R, 11 short	46	1.3
Anderson	Penalties	1	0.8
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8
Jesus	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

32%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson

PRONFO set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

Nottingham ForestForest
0-0
FulhamFulham

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers