Brighton vs Bournemouth preview, 6 Jan 2027: xG form

Brighton favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw26%BOU30%

Mostly last season's ratings, plus 10 matches played this season.

Brighton1.7Bournemouth1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Brighton attack192 chances

PROBrighton attack report PROBournemouth defence report

Patient build-upFairly direct

PROBrighton shape report PROBournemouth shape report

Bournemouth attack148 chances

45%67 / 148

16%24 / 148

39%57 / 148

LeftCentreRight

LW0.60

CF0.20

RW0.00

CAM0.60

CDM0.40

LB0.40

CB0.20

RB0.00

Bournemouth lean left too, straight into Brighton's stronger side.

Your squad in this match

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Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1P. Groß(C)MF	£5.8m	23.9%
2M. De CuyperDF	£4.9m	25.7%
3M. Tavernier

PROFantasy hub, projections

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1P. Groß(C)MF	£5.8m	23.9%
2M. De CuyperDF	£4.9m	25.7%
3M. Tavernier

PROFantasy hub, projections

Brighton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 1 short	15	1.0
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	12	0.6
Groß	Free kicks	7	0.4
Boscagli	Free kicks	5	0.1
Cuyper	Throw-ins	4	0.1
Groß	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

28%

Bournemouth Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	11	0.4
Tavernier	Corners R, 2 short	9	1.0
Hill	Throw-ins	8	0.0
Scott

PROBrighton set pieces PROBournemouth set pieces

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BrightonBrighton
vs
BournemouthBournemouth

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers

Key players

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers

Key players