Arsenal vs Liverpool preview, 27 Oct 2024: xG form

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van Dijk 17'
Salah 80'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW9

27 Oct 16:30

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

ARS favoured at home, but only just.

ARS41%Draw25%LIV34%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal1.5Liverpool1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROARS attack report PROLIV defence report

Patient build-upMixed build-up

PROARS shape report PROLIV shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

LIV12 scored from 15.2 xG-3.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very cautiousCautious

Sits offMixed response

High intensityVery high intensity

Very high lineVery high line

Very technicalVery technical

Central playCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard	Corners R, 1 short	37	1.3
Ødegaard	Penalties	1	0.8
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Allister	Corners L and R, 8 short	72	2.8
Robertson	Corners L and R, 4 short	59	1.6
Alexander-Arnold	Corners L and R, 8 short	55	2.0
Tsimikas

PROARS set pieces PROLIV set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Penalties

27%

ArsenalArsenal
2-2
LiverpoolLiverpool
Saka 8'
Merino 42'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers