Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest preview, 23 Nov 2024: xG form

23 Nov 15:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

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ARS clear favourites at home.

ARS56%Draw23%NFO21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal1.8Forest1.0

A 0.8 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROARS attack report PRONFO defence report

Very cautiousVery bold

PROARS shape report PRONFO shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

NFO7 scored from 7.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very scrappyVery technical

Patient build-upVery direct

Sits deeperVery high line

Very low intensityHigh intensity

Central playVery wide

Sits offHeavy counter-press

LightMiddling physicality

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard	Corners R, 1 short	37	1.3
Ødegaard	Penalties	1	0.8
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina

PROARS set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

ArsenalArsenal
3-0
Nottingham ForestForest
Saka 14'
Partey 51'
Nwaneri

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers