Arsenal vs Southampton preview, 5 Oct 2024: xG form

05 Oct 14:00

T. Harrington

This match has been played.

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ARS clear favourites at home.

ARS74%Draw16%SOU10%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal2.4Southampton0.8

A 1.7 xG edge, roughly a three-in-four win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROARS attack report PROSouthampton defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PROARS shape report PROSouthampton shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityHigh intensity

TechnicalVery technical

Very centralCentral play

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPatient build-up

Very cautiousVery cautious

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard	Corners R, 1 short	37	1.3
Ødegaard	Penalties	1	0.8
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone

PROARS set pieces PROSouthampton set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

ArsenalArsenal
3-1
SouthamptonSouthampton
Havertz 57'
Martinelli 67'
Saka

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers