Aston Villa vs Fulham preview, 3 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL40%Draw26%FUL35%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.4Fulham1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROAVL attack report PROFUL defence report

Central playVery wide

PROAVL shape report PROFUL shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
O. WatkinsCF · AVL	--	30%	9%	0.69	64%	High	0.55
M. RogersCAM · AVL	--	21%	11%	0.43	81%	Low	0.33
A. IwobiWG · FUL	--	15%	12%	0.32	90%	Low	0.09
R. SessegnonWG · FUL	--	11%	6%	0.27	66%	Medium	0.13
Rodrigo MunizCF · FUL	--	11%	1%	0.69	18%	High	0.52
J. McGinnWG · AVL	--	11%	7%	0.29	64%	High	0.10

40 more players

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio	Penalties	2	1.5
Tielemans	Penalties	1	0.8
Rashford	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Pereira	Corners L and R, 11 short	109	3.4
Lukić	Corners L and R, 6 short	42	1.0
Pereira	Free kicks	35	0.7
Wilson

PROAVL set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Aston VillaVilla
1-0
FulhamFulham
Tielemans 11'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers