Bournemouth vs Brighton preview, 23 Nov 2024: xG form

23 Nov 15:00

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU43%Draw24%BHA33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.6Brighton1.3

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBOU attack report PROBRI defence report

Mixed build-upVery direct

PROBOU shape report PROBRI shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU6 scored from 7.1 xG-1.1

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Very high lineVery high line

Heavy counter-pressHeavy counter-press

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Very high intensityVery high intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cook	Corners L and R, 7 short	76	3.0
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 7 short	48	1.2
Cook	Free kicks	36	0.6
Kluivert	Corners L, 4 short	35	2.0
Kluivert	Penalties	6	4.6
Evanilson	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Penalties

24%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro

PROBOU set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

BournemouthBournemouth
1-2
BrightonBrighton
Brooks 92'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers