Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest preview, 25 Jan 2025: xG form

25 Jan 15:00

C. Pawson

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU47%Draw25%NFO29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.6Forest1.2

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBOU attack report PRONFO defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROBOU shape report PRONFO shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU6 scored from 7.1 xG-1.1

NFO7 scored from 7.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits deeperVery high line

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Very directVery direct

Heavy counter-pressHeavy counter-press

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cook	Corners L and R, 7 short	76	3.0
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 7 short	48	1.2
Cook	Free kicks	36	0.6
Kluivert	Corners L, 4 short	35	2.0
Kluivert	Penalties	6	4.6
Evanilson	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Penalties

24%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina

PROBOU set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

BournemouthBournemouth
5-0
Nottingham ForestForest
Kluivert 8'
Ouattara 54'
Ouattara

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers