Brentford vs Aston Villa preview, 8 Mar 2025: xG form

08 Mar 17:30

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

See full analysis

AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

BRE35%Draw24%AVL41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.5Villa1.6

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRE attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROBRE shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BRE14 scored from 11.1 xG+2.9

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offCounter-presses

Patient build-upFairly direct

Central playWide play

Sits deeperPresses higher

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mbeumo	Corners L and R, 15 short	86	4.0
Damsgaard	Corners L, 8 short	59	1.5
Mbeumo	Free kicks	39	0.7
Schade	Throw-ins	34	0.5
Damsgaard	Free kicks	27	0.8
Mbeumo	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

41%

Corners

26%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROBRE set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

BrentfordBrentford
0-1
Aston VillaVilla

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers