Brentford vs West Ham Utd preview, 28 Sep 2024: xG form

28 Sep 14:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRE favoured at home, but only just.

BRE43%Draw24%WHU33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.7West Ham1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRE attack report PROWHU defence report

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

PROBRE shape report PROWHU shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BRE14 scored from 11.1 xG+2.9

WHU10 scored from 7.0 xG+3.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits deeperPresses higher

Measured riskTakes risks

Counter-pressesCounter-presses

Fairly directFairly direct

Middling intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mbeumo	Corners L and R, 15 short	86	4.0
Damsgaard	Corners L, 8 short	59	1.5
Mbeumo	Free kicks	39	0.7
Schade	Throw-ins	34	0.5
Damsgaard	Free kicks	27	0.8
Mbeumo	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

41%

Corners

26%

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners L and R, 3 short	44	1.1
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 1 short	34	0.8
Palmieri	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	1.2
Ward-Prowse

PROBRE set pieces PROWHU set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

34%

Throw-ins

30%

BrentfordBrentford
1-1
West Ham UtdWest Ham
Mbeumo 0'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers