Brighton vs Arsenal preview, 4 Jan 2025: xG form

04 Jan 17:30

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

BHA30%Draw25%ARS45%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.2Arsenal1.6

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROARS defence report

Sits offHeavy counter-press

PROBRI shape report PROARS shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Central playEven width

High intensityVery high intensity

TechnicalVery technical

Very high lineVery high line

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard

PROBRI set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

BrightonBrighton
1-1
ArsenalArsenal
Pedro (P) 60'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers